Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes

Part I: The changing size of second-round effects.- 1. Introduction. 2. Policy implications of ERPT and ongoing debates.- 3. Second round effects, exchange rate depreciation, inflation and average wage settlements.- 4. Second round effects, remuneration per worker, exchange rate depreciation shock and inflation expectations.- 5. Second-round effects, private sector wage inflation and exchange rate depreciation shocks.- 6. Second round effects of oil price shocks to consumer price inflation and the unit labour costs channel.- Part II: Monetary and fiscal policy credibility and changing exchange rate pass-through.- 7. Monetary policy credibility and the time varying exchange rate pass-through to inflation.- 8. Monetary policy credibility and the exchange rate pass-through to inflation.- 9. Does the monetary policy channel impact the transmission of exchange rate depreciation shocks to inflation?.- 10. Does monetary policy credibility impact the responses of unit labour costs to exchange rate depreciation shocks?.- 11. Does monetary policy credibility play a role in transmission of oil price shocks to inflation expectations?.- 12. Does monetary policy credibility affect market-based inflation expectations?.- Part III: Trade openness, Consumer and business confidence and exchange rate pass-through.- 13. Does the consumer confidence channel affect the response of inflation to exchange rate depreciation shocks?.- 14. Does weak business confidence impact the pass-through of the exchange rate depreciation shocks to inflation?.- 15. Does exchange rate volatility impact the pass-through of the exchange rate depreciation shocks to inflation?.- 16. Does trade openness matter for the response of inflation to exchange rate depreciation shocks?.- Part IV: Fiscal policy credibility and changing exchange

Eliphas Ndou is an economist at the South African Reserve Bank, and lectures at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. He holds a PhD in economics from this University. He has co-authored 8 books in the areas of international finance, inequality, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, applied macroeconomics and labour economics, and macroprudential policy.

Nombulelo Gumata is an economist and holds a Master's degree in economics from the University of Johannesburg, South Africa. She has co-authored several books in the areas of money and banking regulation, international finance and macroeconomics, macroprudential tools and financial stability, labour markets, monetary and fiscal policy.

Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma, holds a PhD in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. He is Senior Sector Expert in the National Planning Commission Secretariat, South Africa.