Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting
Error metrics, visual tools, handling unaided judgment, analysis of judgmental adjustments, joint Bayesian modelling
(Sprache: Englisch)
When it comes to forecasting, it's important to know how good your forecasting is and if there are ways to improve it. This work focuses on finding reliable and informative indicators of forecasting performance and on how to improve forecasts with the use...
Leider schon ausverkauft
versandkostenfrei
Buch
86.30 €
- Lastschrift, Kreditkarte, Paypal, Rechnung
- Kostenlose Rücksendung
- Ratenzahlung möglich
Produktdetails
Produktinformationen zu „Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting “
Klappentext zu „Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting “
When it comes to forecasting, it's important to know how good your forecasting is and if there are ways to improve it. This work focuses on finding reliable and informative indicators of forecasting performance and on how to improve forecasts with the use of judgment. Chapter 2 explores limitations of various error measures and introduces a new class of metrics (AvgRel-metrics) for measuring forecasting performance using the following rules: i) relative indicators are averaged across series using the weighted geometric mean, ii) an indicator used to evaluate forecasts must correspond to the loss function used to optimize forecasts. The AvgRelMSE and AvgRelMAE metrics are proposed to measure accuracy under quadratic and linear loss, respectively, and the AvgRelAME to measure bias. Boxplots of logs of relative indicators are used to visualize distributions. Chapters 3 and 4 look at models for handling unaided judgment & judgmental adjustments. In particular, this work introduces advanced models based on using panel data and Bayesian analysis. Chapter 5 proposes a novel approach allowing to incorporate judgment into a joint model and update forecasts as new data becomes available.
Autoren-Porträt von Andrey Davydenko
Davydenko, AndreyAndrey has a rich experience of working as a data scientist/researcher on various projects, including credit scoring and the development of commercial software for business forecasting. He's a Microsoft Certified Solution Developer, has CSc. and Ph.D. degrees. His interests involve dataviz tools, error metrics, combining judgment and stat. methods.
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autor: Andrey Davydenko
- 2021, 308 Seiten, Maße: 22 cm, Kartoniert (TB), Englisch
- Verlag: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
- ISBN-10: 6203471224
- ISBN-13: 9786203471229
Sprache:
Englisch
Kommentar zu "Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting"
Schreiben Sie einen Kommentar zu "Integration of Judgmental and Statistical Approaches to Forecasting".
Kommentar verfassen