Russia in a Changing World

Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of the influential journal Russia in Global Affairs and Chairman of the Presidium of the CFDP, posits that a stable international order never established itself after the Cold War - defined as a shared commitment to status quo of the basic rules and organisation of the international system. The post-Cold War world order was intended to transition into a system where the world was no longer divided because of their support for either the US or Soviet Union, and instead come together to resolve the most pressing problems of the world. The Western-centric world order failed as the imperative of preserving the unipolar distribution of power undermined the ability to address and solve the world's problems. While the unipolar world is coming to an end, a multipolar system has yet emerged. There is a multipolar distribution of power, yet the unilateralism of the unipolar era still prevails. Lukyanov posits that due to its size, geopolitical location, resource potential, great power tradition, and aspirations - Russia finds itself in the middle of the most important trends shaping the next world order. Global demand for a stable and balanced model is intertwined with Russia's quest for its new international identity. Reassessment of the past quarter of a century is needed in Russia both internationally and nationally to pave a way to the future.

 

Chapter 3: Russia's Pivot to Asia

Alexander Lukin

Alexander Lukin, the Department Head, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE and Director of the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, explores Russia's pivot to Asia. While Russia's pivot to Asia has its successes and setbacks, the pivot is a reality that appears to be 'irreversible'. Supported by both economic and political strategic interests, Russia has made formidable investments to rewire global value chains by linking itself to the Asian giants. With a growing number of states across the massive continent embracing some format for Eurasian integration, Russia is finding partners to enhance economic connectivity and develop new political realities. The growing sentiment among the Russian political class and society is that the West has less to offer and new opportunities await in Asia. Yet, a formidable struggle awaits as Russia is less experienced in the political, economic and security environment of Asia and nobody is waiting for them with open arms.  



Chapter 4: Russia's Economic Restructuring

Leonid GrigoryevLeonid Grigoryev, tenured professor at HSE and Russia's former deputy minister of economics and finances, argues that the Russian economy has continued it historical dependence on export of raw material exports. Russia's energy curse has been defined by de-industrialisation as energy exports became Russia's comparative advantage in the free market. The energy curse is now sought to be broken by using revenue from energy exports to finance a domestic high-tech sector and education, instead of using this revenue import technologies and consumer goods. Russia's was on the path towards modernisation under the policies of Sergei Witte, yet it was disrupted by World War I, the Civil War, purges of the 1930s, World War II, and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia's efforts to climb in global value chains by contributing with the high-value economic activity is now becoming a key component of Russia's economic and security strategy.



 

Chapter 5: Technological Developments and Preparations for a New Global Economy

Igor A. Makarov

Igor A. Makarov, Associate Professor at the Department of World Economy of HSE, explores how Russia attempts to develop technological ecosystems similar to US and China. With new technologies set to reorganise economic and military competition, technological platforms are becoming a condition for great power standing. Equipped with its independent digital platforms, Russia is seeking to develop technological preparedness in areas such as artificial intelligence, automation, robotics and various technologies with unpredictable application. While Russia has joined the party late, it has the potential and ambition to establish itself as a leading power.

 

Chapter 6: Russia as an International Conservative Power                                                

Glenn Diesen

Glenn Diesen, Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE in Moscow and editor at Russia in Global Affairs, assesses Russia's new soft power in international affairs. The capitalist - communist divide of the Cold War was soon artificially replaced by a new liberal democratic - authoritarian divide in the 1990s. The common rhetoric in the West was that Russia had nothing to offer the world, and it had to emulate the West to become relevant. Instead, Russia has been moving along a conservative path. After the demise of the Soviet Union, the Russian government has unapologetically sought to revive the nation, faith, family, and the traditional to restore an identity and societal resilience. The crisis in Western liberalism, caused by political and economic neoliberalism, has given birth to new political movements that aim to restore the balance between conservativism and liberalism. For these groups, Russia has transitioned from an adversary to a potential ally.

 

Chapter 7: Energy in World Politics

Elexander Kurdin

Alexander Kurdin, Associate Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE in Moscow, explores Russia's role in international energy markets. Energy will remain a strategic industry for revenue and influence in the years to come. Russia's energy resources in the past were seen to be instrumental to retain a voice in Europe and to incentivise political integration. Now, Russia's energy resources are central to the pivot to Asia and cementing a strategic partnership with China. The dynamics of EU-Russian cooperation and competition also changes as Russia goes from merely seeking to diversify its transit states to diversifying its energy consumers. 

 

Chapter 8: Russia's National Security Strategy

Maxim Bratersky

Maxim Bratersky, Professor in the Department of International Relations at HSE, analyses the evolution of Russia's approach to national security since the Cold War came to an end. Efforts to assure national security by integrating with West has come to an end as economic and political dependency has become a vulnerability. Russia's development of an independent geoeconomic project is aimed to restore symmetry in relations with the West as a source of security.

 

Chapter 9: The Contemporary World between Integration and Secession: A Challenge for Russia

Ivan Krivushin

Ivan Krivushin, the Deputy Head of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE outlines two major and seemingly contradictory trends in contemporary world politics - regional integration and secessionism. The commonality is the emergence of new political identities that challenge the sovereign state. This trend presents Russia with opportunities by widening the scope for diplomatic manoeuvring, yet it also infers certain challenges by complicating its foreign policy.     

 

Conclusion

Glenn Diesen and Alexander Lukin

It will be concluded that major disruptions in the international system have historically been a catalyst for conflict. Yet, the instability caused by a skewed international distribution of power and weak position of Russia since the Cold War ended makes the current world order untenable. The changes in the world is expected to lay the foundations for a more stable and just world, where Russia emerges as an independent pole in a multipolar system by harnessing political, technological, military, geoeconomic, and soft power.