Super Thinking
The Big Book of Mental Models
(Sprache: Englisch)
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A WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER!"You can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts. If the facts don't hang together on a latticework of theory, you don't have them in a usable form.
You've got to have models in your head."
- Charlie Munger, investor, vice chairman of Berkshire HathawayThe world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more.
Or, you can just read Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need. How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples...
If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize.
Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem.
Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation.
Ever sat through a bad movie just because you paid a lot for the ticket? You might be falling prey to Sunk Cost Fallacy.
Set up Forcing Functions, like standing meeting or deadlines, to help grease the wheels for changes you want to occur.
So, the next time you find yourself faced with a difficult decision or just trying to understand a complex situation, let Super Thinking upgrade your brain with mental models.
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1Being Wrong Less
You may not realize it, but you make dozens of decisions every day. And when you make those decisions, whether they are personal or professional, you want to be right much more often than you are wrong. However, consistently being right more often is hard to do because the world is a complex, ever-evolving place. You are steadily faced with unfamiliar situations, usually with a large array of choices. The right answer may be apparent only in hindsight, if it ever becomes clear at all.
Carl Jacobi was a nineteenth-century German mathematician who often used to say, Invert, always invert (actually he said, Man muss immer umkehren, because English wasn t his first language). He meant that thinking about a problem from an inverse perspective can unlock new solutions and strategies. For example, most people approach investing their money from the perspective of making more money; the inverse approach would be investing money from the perspective of not losing money.
Or consider healthy eating. A direct approach would be to try to construct a healthy diet, perhaps by making more food at home with controlled ingredients. An inverse approach, by contrast, would be to try to avoid unhealthy options. You might still go to all the same eating establishment but simply choose the healthier options when there.
The problem of making good decisions can also benefit from this concept of inverse thinking. The inverse of being more right is being less wrong. Mental models are a tool set that can help you be less wrong. They are a collection of concepts that help you more effectively navigate our complex world.
As noted in the Introduction, mental models come from a variety of specific disciplines, but many have more value beyond the field they come from. If you can use these mental models to help you make decisions as events unfold before you, they can help you be wrong less often.
Let us offer an example from the world of sports. In tennis,
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an unforced error occurs when a player makes a mistake not because the other player hit an awesome shot, but rather because of their own poor judgment or execution. For example, hitting an easy ball into the net is one kind of unforced error. To be less wrong in tennis, you need to make fewer unforced errors on the court. And to be consistently less wrong in decision making, you consistently need to make fewer unforced errors in your own life.
See how this works? Unforced error is a concept from tennis, but it can be applied as a metaphor in any situation where an avoidable mistake is made. There are unforced errors in baking (using a tablespoon instead of a teaspoon) or dating (making a bad first impression) or decision making (not considering all your options). Start looking for unforced errors around you and you will see them everywhere.
An unforced error isn t the only way to make a wrong decision, though. The best decision based on the information available at the time can easily turn out to be the wrong decision in the long run. That s just the nature of dealing with uncertainty. No matter how hard you try, because of uncertainty, you may still be wrong when you make decisions, more frequently than you d like. What you can do, however, is strive to make fewer unforced errors over time by using sound judgment and techniques to make the best decision at any given time.
Another mental model to help improve your thinking is called antifragile, a concept explored in a book of the same name, by financial analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In his words:
Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile.
Antifragility
See how this works? Unforced error is a concept from tennis, but it can be applied as a metaphor in any situation where an avoidable mistake is made. There are unforced errors in baking (using a tablespoon instead of a teaspoon) or dating (making a bad first impression) or decision making (not considering all your options). Start looking for unforced errors around you and you will see them everywhere.
An unforced error isn t the only way to make a wrong decision, though. The best decision based on the information available at the time can easily turn out to be the wrong decision in the long run. That s just the nature of dealing with uncertainty. No matter how hard you try, because of uncertainty, you may still be wrong when you make decisions, more frequently than you d like. What you can do, however, is strive to make fewer unforced errors over time by using sound judgment and techniques to make the best decision at any given time.
Another mental model to help improve your thinking is called antifragile, a concept explored in a book of the same name, by financial analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In his words:
Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile.
Antifragility
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Autoren-Porträt von Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann
Gabriel Weinberg is the CEO & Founder of DuckDuckGo, the Internet privacy company and private search engine. He holds a B.S. with honors from MIT in Physics and an M.S. from the MIT Technology and Policy Program. Weinberg is also the co-author of Traction. Lauren McCann is a statistician and researcher. She spent nearly a decade at GlaxoSmithKline, where she designed and analyzed clinical trials and authored articles in medical journals, including the New England Journal of Medicine. She holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research and a B.S. with honors in mathematics, from MIT.
Lauren and Gabriel reside in Valley Forge, PA with their two children.
superthinking.com
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autoren: Gabriel Weinberg , Lauren McCann
- 2019, 352 Seiten, mit Schwarz-Weiß-Abbildungen, Maße: 19,2 x 23,8 cm, Gebunden, Englisch
- Verlag: Portfolio
- ISBN-10: 0525533583
- ISBN-13: 9780525533580
- Erscheinungsdatum: 28.05.2020
Sprache:
Englisch
Pressezitat
An intellectual playground that will have your brain doing mental reps and seeing the world differently."SHANE PARRISH, creator of the Farnam Street blog and host of The Knowledge Project podcast
An invaluable resource for making sense of the world, making good decisions, and placing smart bets. A fast-paced and fun read, jam-packed with useful information on every page. I wish I d had this book ages ago!
ANNIE DUKE, author of Thinking in Bets
"Internalizing these mental models will help you understand the world around you. Once you can spot them, you can change your own behavior to avoid common traps, adjust how you interact with people to get better results, and maybe even articulate new mental models of the world that have yet to be discovered."
BRIAN ARMSTRONG, Cofounder & CEO of Coinbase
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