The New German Foreign Policy-Opinion Nexus: Europein the Balance?

After the end of the Cold War and unification withthe former East German GDR, Germany maintained thepolicy alliance paradigm with the US. However, withthe 2002 opposition to the US on UN Security Councilresolution 1441 on Iraq, this relationship appearedto change. Does the German decision on Iraq indicatea new foreign policy direction and what accounts forthis possible change in Germany? Exogenous andendogenous factors including US policy, EUintegration, Unification/Growing Germanself-assurance, and the opinion-policy relationshiptypical for advanced democratic countries areexamined. Scholars of democracy have suggested thatpolicy outputs follow public opinion in advanceddemocratic countries. Using time-series statisticalregression analyses, I test the opinion-policy nexusin Germany with regard to the US foreign policyrelationship. I find that along with severalcontributing factors, post-unification changes in theGerman electorate allowed for a reassessment of theold foreign policy paradigm as a "normal"opinion-policy relationship developed in post-ColdWar Germany. From a realist's systemic perspectivehowever, German behavior looks a lot like balancing.