The Signal and the Noise
Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
(Sprache: Englisch)
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER
"One of the more momentous books of the decade."-The New York Times Book Review
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's...
"One of the more momentous books of the decade."-The New York Times Book Review
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's...
lieferbar
versandkostenfrei
Buch (Kartoniert)
21.60 €
- Lastschrift, Kreditkarte, Paypal, Rechnung
- Kostenlose Rücksendung
Produktdetails
Produktinformationen zu „The Signal and the Noise “
Klappentext zu „The Signal and the Noise “
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER"One of the more momentous books of the decade."-The New York Times Book Review
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.
Silver observes that
... mehr
the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
... weniger
Lese-Probe zu „The Signal and the Noise “
At about the time The Signal and the Noise was first published in September 2012, Big Data was on its way becoming a Big Idea. Google searches for the term doubled over the course of a year,1 as did mentions of it in the news media.2 Hundreds of books were published on the subject. If you picked up any business periodical in 2013, advertisements for Big Data were as ubiquitous as cigarettes in an episode of Mad Men.But by late 2014, there was evidence that trend had reached its apex. The frequency with which Big Data was mentioned in corporate press releases had slowed down and possibly begun to decline.3 The technology research firm Gartner even declared that Big Data had passed the peak of its hype cycle. 4
I hope that Gartner is right. Coming to a better understanding of data and statistics is essential to help us navigate our lives. But as with most emerging technologies, the widespread benefits to science, industry, and human welfare will come only after the hype has died down.
FIGURE P-1: BIG DATA MENTIONS IN CORPORATE PRESS RELEASES
I worry that certain events in my life have contributed to the hype cycle. On November 6, 2012, the statistical model at my Web site FiveThirtyEight called the winner of the American presidential election correctly in all fifty states. I received a congratulatory phone call from the White House. I was hailed as lord and god of the algorithm by The Daily Show s Jon Stewart. My name briefly received more Google search traffic than the vice president of the United States.
I enjoyed some of the attention, but I felt like an outlier even a fluke. Mostly I was getting credit for having pointed out the obvious and most of the rest was luck.*
To be sure, it was reasonably clear by Election Day that President Obama was poised to win reelection. When voters went to the polls on election morning, FiveThirtyEight s statistical model put his chances of
... mehr
winning the Electoral College at about 90 percent.* A 90 percent chance is not quite a sure thing: Would you board a plane if the pilot told you it had a 90 percent chance of landing successfully? But when there s only reputation rather than life or limb on the line, it s a good bet. Obama needed to win only a handful of the swing states where he was tied or ahead in the polls; Mitt Romney would have had to win almost all of them.
But getting every state right was a stroke of luck. In our Election Day forecast, Obama s chance of winning Florida was just 50.3 percent the outcome was as random as a coin flip. Considering other states like Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and North Carolina, our chances of going fifty-for-fifty were only about 20 percent.5 FiveThirtyEight s perfect forecast was fortuitous but contributed to the perception that statisticians are soothsayers only using computers rather than crystal balls.
This is a wrongheaded and rather dangerous idea. American presidential elections are the exception to the rule one of the few examples of a complex system in which outcomes are usually more certain than the conventional wisdom implies. (There are a number of reasons for this, not least that the conventional wisdom is often not very wise when it comes to politics.) Far more often, as this book will explain, we overrate our ability to predict the world around us. With some regularity, events that are said to be certain fail to come to fruition or those that are deemed impossible turn out to occur.
If all of this is so simple, why did so many pundits get the 2012 election wrong? It wasn t just on the fringe of the blogosphere that conservatives insisted that the polls were skewed toward President Obama. Thoughtful cons
But getting every state right was a stroke of luck. In our Election Day forecast, Obama s chance of winning Florida was just 50.3 percent the outcome was as random as a coin flip. Considering other states like Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and North Carolina, our chances of going fifty-for-fifty were only about 20 percent.5 FiveThirtyEight s perfect forecast was fortuitous but contributed to the perception that statisticians are soothsayers only using computers rather than crystal balls.
This is a wrongheaded and rather dangerous idea. American presidential elections are the exception to the rule one of the few examples of a complex system in which outcomes are usually more certain than the conventional wisdom implies. (There are a number of reasons for this, not least that the conventional wisdom is often not very wise when it comes to politics.) Far more often, as this book will explain, we overrate our ability to predict the world around us. With some regularity, events that are said to be certain fail to come to fruition or those that are deemed impossible turn out to occur.
If all of this is so simple, why did so many pundits get the 2012 election wrong? It wasn t just on the fringe of the blogosphere that conservatives insisted that the polls were skewed toward President Obama. Thoughtful cons
... weniger
Autoren-Porträt von Nate Silver
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autor: Nate Silver
- 2015, 576 Seiten, mit Abbildungen, Maße: 13,6 x 21,3 cm, Kartoniert (TB), Englisch
- Verlag: PENGUIN BOOKS
- ISBN-10: 0143125087
- ISBN-13: 9780143125082
- Erscheinungsdatum: 28.01.2015
Sprache:
Englisch
Pressezitat
Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War . . . could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade. New York Times Book ReviewMr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise . . . Lively prose from energetic to outraged . . . illustrates his dos and don ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I ve seen . . . even the noise makes for a good read. New York Times
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction without academic mathematics cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." New York Review of Books
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched . . ." Wall Street Journal
"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics . . . His ambitious new book, The Signal and the Noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone." The Boston Globe
"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions." Washington Post
The Signal and the Noise is many things an introduction to the
... mehr
Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and character, a commentary on poker's insights into life but it's most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed up as data . . . What is most refreshing . . . is its humility. Sometimes we have to deal with not knowing, and we need somebody to tell us that. Esquire
[An] entertaining popularization of a subject that scares many people off . . .Silver s journey from consulting to baseball analytics to professional poker to political prognosticating is very much that of a restless and curious mind. And this, more than number-crunching, is where real forecasting prowess comes from. Slate
Nate Silver serves as a sort of Zen master to American election-watchers . . . In the spirit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb s widely read The Black Swan, Mr. Silver asserts that humans are overconfident in their predictive abilities, that they struggle to think in probabilistic terms and build models that do not allow for uncertainty. The Economist
"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone." Wired
"The Signal and the Noise is essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker." Forbes.com
Laser sharp. Surprisingly, statistics in Silver s hands is not without some fun. Smithsonian Magazine
A substantial, wide-ranging, and potentially important gauntlet of probabilistic thinking based on actual data thrown at the feet of a culture determined to sweep away silly liberal notions like facts. The Village Voice
Silver shines a light on 600 years of human intelligence-gathering from the advent of the printing press all the way through the Industrial Revolution and up to the current day and he finds that it's been an inspiring climb. We've learned so much, and we still have so much left to learn. MLB.com
Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we d be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate s influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read totally engrossing." Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Yogi Berra was right: forecasting is hard, especially about the future. In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next. Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge
[An] entertaining popularization of a subject that scares many people off . . .Silver s journey from consulting to baseball analytics to professional poker to political prognosticating is very much that of a restless and curious mind. And this, more than number-crunching, is where real forecasting prowess comes from. Slate
Nate Silver serves as a sort of Zen master to American election-watchers . . . In the spirit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb s widely read The Black Swan, Mr. Silver asserts that humans are overconfident in their predictive abilities, that they struggle to think in probabilistic terms and build models that do not allow for uncertainty. The Economist
"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone." Wired
"The Signal and the Noise is essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker." Forbes.com
Laser sharp. Surprisingly, statistics in Silver s hands is not without some fun. Smithsonian Magazine
A substantial, wide-ranging, and potentially important gauntlet of probabilistic thinking based on actual data thrown at the feet of a culture determined to sweep away silly liberal notions like facts. The Village Voice
Silver shines a light on 600 years of human intelligence-gathering from the advent of the printing press all the way through the Industrial Revolution and up to the current day and he finds that it's been an inspiring climb. We've learned so much, and we still have so much left to learn. MLB.com
Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we d be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate s influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read totally engrossing." Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Yogi Berra was right: forecasting is hard, especially about the future. In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next. Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge
... weniger
Kommentar zu "The Signal and the Noise"
Schreiben Sie einen Kommentar zu "The Signal and the Noise".
Kommentar verfassen