Building Cycles (PDF)

The global economic crisis of 2008 was precipitated by a housing
market crash, thus highlighting the destabilizing influence of the
property cycle upon the wider economy. This timely book by a world
authority explores why cycles occur and how they affect the
behaviour of real estate markets. The central argument put forward
is that growth and instability are inextricably linked, and that
building investment acts both as a key driver of growth and as the
source of the most volatile cyclical fluctuations in an economy.

The role of building cycles in both economic growth and urban
development is explored through a theoretical review and a
comparative historical analysis of UK and US national data
stretching back to the start of the nineteenth century, together
with a case study of the development of London since the start of
the eighteenth century.

A simulation model of the building cycle is presented and tested
using data for the City of London office market. The analysis is
then broadened to examine the operation of property cycles in
global investment markets during the post-war period, focussing on
their contribution to the diffusion of innovation, the accumulation
of wealth and the propagation of market instability.

Building Cycles: growth & instability concludes by
synthesizing the main themes into a theoretical framework, which
can guide our understanding of the operation and impact of building
cycles on the modern economy.

Postgraduate students on courses in property and in urban
development as well as professional property researchers, urban
economists and planners will find this a stimulating read -
demanding but accessible.