Development of the Sudanese Construction Industry SCI using Dynamic Modeling (PDF)

Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2018 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, , language: English, abstract: This study is aimed at modelling the Sudanese Construction Industry (SCI) by conducting a comprehensive review and analysis of factors affecting the construction industry in Sudan. This study examines the relationship between SCI and the whole economy focusing on its contribution to the Sudanese GDP. In addition, the study also is aimed at developing suitable System Dynamics Models (SDMs) in order to better understand the behavior of this industry.
Multiple research methods are employed including a questionnaire survey and interviews. The questionnaire survey is formulated for the purpose of collecting primary data about the factors influencing the SCI and the challenges facing the construction industry. Sixteen relevant factors are identified that influence the SCI. These factors are evaluated and ranked according to their interrelationships and relative importance to the development of SCI. The questionnaire targeted fifty experienced members of construction stakeholder organisations.
A pairwise comparison method is used to determine dynamic weights and the relative importance of each criterion. The relationships between different factors and dynamic weights are assessed by using the VENSIM® program to formulate a system dynamic model for SCI. The research employed the Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique to develop the best-fit models representing the relationships between the significant factors.
Two sets of results are obtained, random and systematic; the systematic results were used to develop several different SDMs. The validity and sensitivity of these models are also evaluated. The fourth model was connected with the SCI¿s portion of GDP through a dynamic molecule to measure the output of the construction industry. The main outcome of the fourth model is the estimation of a 6.2% share Sudan GDP for the SCI. Four strategies were tested simultaneously based on observations of neighboring countries and how they embarked upon developing and improving their construction industries.
The findings also revealed that the "regulation of the sector" factor is the top ranked factor. Therefore, the industry is in desperate need of the establishment and/or empowerment of appropriate institutions necessary to facilitate the development of a modern and sophisticated construction industry.