Indirect effects of global climate change and the impact of extreme weather events on the German food system (PDF)

Master's Thesis from the year 2017 in the subject Environmental Sciences, grade: 1,3, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, language: English, abstract: The long-term reduction of hunger has recently slowed down as a result of ongoing global climate change, increasing climate variability, and extreme weather events, disrupting our global food system. The direct impacts of climate change in Germany are expected to be comparably low and the ability to adapt to these impacts is high. However, it is likely that Germany, as part of a highly interconnected world, may become increasingly affected by climate change impacts in other world regions.

This thesis investigates how adverse effects of global climate change can be transferred across borders to demonstrate the various potential indirect impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on food systems. Moreover, this study seeks to assess how far the direct effects on agricultural productivity abroad and the disruption of transportation-related infrastructures can affect the German food system to depict its level of exposure to the indirect effects of global climate change via trade of agricultural commodities. The results show that Germany is heavily dependent on the import of soybeans, palm oil, bananas, and coffee from increasingly vulnerable trading partners outside of Europe.

The direct impact on the production of these commodities represents a significant threat to the German food system via trade. The evidence suggests that improved understanding of the indirect impacts of climate change on food systems is needed to be able to adapt to the full range of risks from climate change, climate variability and extreme events on agricultural production.