Inflation and the Stock Market Price Bubble in Nigeria. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Analysis (PDF)

Fachbuch aus dem Jahr 2023 im Fachbereich Afrikawissenschaften - Sonstiges, , Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: It is pertinent that stock price movement is a natural phenomenon of the stock market, but a stock market crash or meltdown occurs when the price of majority of stocks that are unusually high, subsequently exhibit a sharp decline within a short period of time. Thus, this study examined the impact of inflation on stock price bubble in Nigeria.

The study employed the ex-post factor research design. Secondary data collected from the Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics was for 33 years from the period of 1989-2022.The study employed the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method of analysis.

The result of ARDL revealed that the previous All share Index (ASI) (ß= 0.8544, P< 0.05) has a significant positive effect on current All share index. Inflation (INF) (ß= -92.2118, P>0.05) has negative insignificant effect on stock price movement.
The study concluded that inflation may not be the cause of some price bubbles or change on the stock exchange market, but other macro-economic variables can also induce change on stock price. Therefore monetary authorities should focus their attention more on other macro-economic variables rather than inflation towards maintaining a stable flow of stock price on the Stock Exchange market.