Investing in the Age of Sovereign Defaults (PDF)

Chapter One: Summary of Book's Conclusions 1. Major defaults on sovereign debt and entitlement obligations of advanced country debt and obligations including the US and Japan coming over the next five years. 2. Major transfer of wealth coming in this process 3. Revision of international monetary system including possible gold standard to replace dollar 4. Overview of benefits/demographic problem 5. Advice on surviving this crisis Chapter Two: Definition of Default 1. Legal default 2. Inflation default--Money is printed as market access is denied 3. Financial repression: Invasion of retirement funds, confiscation of alternative investments like gold, restrictions on foreign investment etc 4. Benefits default: reneging on entitlements, means testing benefits, manipulation of CPI, inflation reduction of benefits etc Chapter Three: History of Sovereign Defaults This chapter will rely largely on the work of Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart who have become the major source on this topic Chapter Four: The Dysfunctional Dollar Centric Fiat Money International Monetary System as an Integral Part of the Sovereign Overleveraging Process Chapter Five: The Market vs the Democratic Electoral System 1. Voters demand benefits via the electoral process that are ultimately financially not possible 2. Elected politicians not capable of denying voters their wishes 3. Voters do not trust markets and hold views on globalization, free trade, capital flows etc that are anti- market and irrational 4. But markets have ultimate vote - governments can be denied market access or allowed to borrow only under onerous (high interest rate) conditions Chapter Six: What Will Governments Do When Markets Say No 1. Default (of all types) on debt and benefits 2. Increase taxes Chapter Seven: The Outlook for a Crisis with the Debt of the United States Chapter Eight: The Outlook for a Crisis with the Debt of Japan Chapter Nine: The Outlook for further Crises in the Eurozone (including the UK) Chapter

DR. PETER T. TREADWAY is an independent consultant and
money manager. He is currently principal of Historical Analytics
LLC, a consulting/investment management firm dedicated to global
portfolio management. From 1965-2000, Treadway had a
distinguished career on Wall Street and with major American
financial institutions. He was ranked as an "all star" analyst
eleven times by Institutional Investor. Treadway holds a PhD
in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
an MBA from New York University, and a BA in English from Fordham
University in New York.

DR. MICHAEL C. S. WONG is the founding President of
CTRISKS, a credit rating agency and risk-consulting firm based in
the Greater China region, and an Associate Professor of Finance at
the City University of Hong Kong. Dr. Wong is the Hong Kong
Regional Director of the Global Association of Risk Professionals
and was a founding member of the FRM Committee of the association
from 1998-2002. Prior to his career in academia and
consulting, he was involved in investment banking. Dr. Wong
graduated from the University of Cambridge, University of Essex,
and the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Dieses eBook können Sie uneingeschränkt auf allen Geräten der tolino Familie lesen. Zum Lesen auf sonstigen eReadern und am PC benötigen Sie eine Adobe ID.